Climate Change, Rural Out-Migration, and Social Transformation in Uttarakhand

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of climate change and rural out-migration on social transformation with a specific focus on migration prone hill districts of Uttarakhand. The study uses secondary data and evidence at the district level and analysis of climate and migration indicators. It has been found that climatic factors like rainfall variability (38.30%), water scarcity (34.04%), and agriculture degradation (31.91%) are some of the most influential factors for migration. Amongst the mediating factors, agricultural stress (29.79%), employment deficit (21.28%), and service gaps (19.15%) have been identified as major determinants of rural migration. District-level evidence suggests that Pauri Garhwal (21.28%), Almora (17.02%), and Tehri Garhwal (14.89%) are some of the worst affected districts. The trend of migration analysis further shows that there has been a rise in the case of temporary migration from 42 thousand in 2019 to 71 thousand in 2026, whereas that of permanent migration has risen from 9 thousand to 21 thousand.